The us dollar continues to strengthen on the foreign exchange market. The dollar index over the past three trading session, gained about 2%, which largely defines the current trend for most assets.
The strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market is putting pressure on the entire group of commodities. Gold back to the lows observed since the end of June, oil prices also last days are under pressure. Not to say that all emerging-market currencies after the Symposium in Jackson hole have serious problems, but the Russian ruble here stands apart largely due to falling oil prices.
By and large, last week the pair dollar/ruble konsolidiruyutsya near the mark of 65 rubles/dollar. but the risks of a gradual movement in district 67 rubles/dollar. increase. A large value for the pair will be Friday’s publication of data on the U.S. labor market, which can severely affect investors assess the probability of a rate hike from the Federal reserve at the September meeting.
The U.S. stock market closed yesterday with a small decrease of the index. Almost all sectors finished the day in negative territory, the exception was made only for the financial sector, which added 0.9%. Part of it is based on the component of banks increased and is 1.36% and currently trading at the maximum over this year levels.
The ratio KBE/SPY (the banking sector to a wide market) on the eve crossed above its 200-day moving average, and on the horizon in a few months, this trend can be continued. Huge value for this will be market expectations on the prospects of a rate hike at the next meeting, but in the case of strong data this week on the labor market and the gradual growth of speculation regarding the possibility of raising rates in September, the banking sector is quite able to demonstrate growth of 7-10% and be better than the broad market.
Today the focus will be publication of data on reserves and production of oil from the US Department of energy. The confirmation of the idea of the gradual recovery of production – a signal for further decline in oil prices. The decrease in same production under favorable data on stocks – a reason to see a corrective bounce in oil futures.
Poddubsky Michael, analyst at Teletrade