News Agency Finam.ru (part of the Group of companies “FINAM”) interviewed users of the portal Finam.EN and analysts about their forecasts for the dollar against the ruble at the end of June. Experts and investors predict that by the beginning of III quarter of 2016 the dollar will give about 70 rubles.
According to the analytical group of the company “FINAM”, the likely rate hike, the fed and the correction in the oil market will cause the weakening of the ruble to the level of 70 rubles/dollar. “From the point of view of fundamental analysis at the moment the national currency looks significantly overvalued. In June the planned meeting of the U.S. Federal reserve (June 15) and “big” meeting of the Central Bank of Russia (10 June) with the publication of the report on monetary policy and press conference. In the case of a meeting of the American regulator high probability of a rate hike that will lead to a significant strengthening of the dollar against other currencies. The ruble, in turn, will be especially vulnerable to a tightening in monetary policy because, according to our estimates, at the next meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will host the first in a three quarter reduction of the key rate. It is obvious that, on the background of the above, the Russian currency will be under pressure, most of which have roughly the middle of the month, when in the moment can be punched level of 70 rubles per dollar.
From a technical point of view, in may the dollar was stuck in the corridor between levels 65 and 67 rubles. All attempts to go beyond his boundaries so far have been unsuccessful. Thus, finally we can say that the us dollar broke its downtrend, originating from the highs of the year, and came out of the downward channel, starting from the highs of mid-March. However, the most likely scenario sees a way up to the achievement of around 70 rubles per dollar and subsequent correction” – experts say “FINAM” in a research note.
Users of the financial portal Finam.ru traditionally believe in the power of the Russian currency. According to the section of “Ribbon”, investors tend to believe that the ruble will not be able to become cheaper to the US dollar as at 30 June above $ 66,2 rubles.
Interviewed employees information group Finam.ru financial experts differed in opinion and note that the exchange rate will affect the expected rebound in oil prices and a possible increase in the key rate of the Federal reserve.
“The ruble is showing some strength against the dollar and the Euro. The reasons for the consolidation include the stabilization of the oil market, a high yield of ruble assets, moderate geopolitical climate for the Russian Federation. Further strengthening of oil prices is highly unlikely orientirueshsya that by mid-summer the ruble will be traded at a mark of 70 rubles./$, “–say the analysts of Bank “the Union”.
Head of Department of market researches IFD “Kapital” Konstantin Gulyaev waiting for a stronger dollar and lower oil prices: “By the end of June we can see the pair dollar/rouble at level 70. Apparently, in the next month will occur the removal of the oil up and spread, which can be very sharp and taking into account the possible fall (which won’t look like a collapse, since the lowest point in the oil prices we have already passed) in the neighborhood of $39-40 per barrel of Brent”.
The Deputy chief of analytical Department IK “Okay Broker” Sergey Alin notes the importance of seasonal factors in the dynamics of the ruble. “However, the future prospects of the ruble is seen not so rosy. We expect growth of dollar to the level 70.5 ruble/dollar (+6%) in the next couple of months. In the summer and in the months running up to the strengthening of the ruble seems to us unlikely,” – says Sergey Alin.
The exchange rate will depend on the decisions of the American regulator, says Manager “Dimaks Capital” Victor Rodin: “If the fed in June to raise rates, the dollar can go to the district 70 rubles. If the rate is changed, the rate of “American” will remain at around 65 rubles“. Agrees with him, Dmitry Aleksandrov from the IG “UNIVER Capital”: as for the Russian ruble, predicting its behavior in June is now extremely difficult, mainly because the monthly scheduled meeting of the fed. <…> And if the fed will raise the rate, it is good if the dollar stays in its current range – 65-66 rubles. If this does not happen again and the fed would not tighten monetary policy, perhaps the movement just in the area is 61 rubles per dollar“.
The forecast of the ruble to the dollar at the end of June:
Forecast of analysts of the company “FINAM”
The expectation of the users of the section “Tape” on the website Finam.ru
Analysts Of Bank “The Union”
Victor Rodin, IK Dimaks Capital
Sergei Alin, IR “Okay Broker
Konstantin Gulyaev, IFD “Kapital”
Dmitry Aleksandrov, the IG “UNIVER Capital”