Summing up August, with one eye watching the oil…

So another month comes to an end. Ends today and the summer. And we can summarize the results of these eight months.

With the beginning of the year the MICEX index has gained weight of 12.74%, with the index climbing to 1985,69 points, the exchange of RTS has grown by 26.63% to 958,67 points.

If you do a breakdown by sectors, the best dynamics since the beginning of the year show the following indices: the index of MICEXPWR electricity and transport MICEXTRN increased to 70,95%, i.e. 55.38% respectively. Followed by metals and mining MICEXM&M, an increase of 29.45% and the index of banks and Finance MICEXFNL with the increase of 23.01%, the rest of the sector showed the worst performance compared to the leading index.

Thus, if you bought a paper of the above fields, your portfolio feel would be the best way. It is strange that despite a noticeable recovery in prices for “black gold” oil and gas index was able to add all of 7.12%. So even though oil around the head, this year the clear favorite energy remains.

According to the American petroleum Institute (API), oil stocks in the United States in the previous week increased by 0,942 million barrels, which in General coincided with forecasts of analysts. Now investors are waiting for the evening data on stockpiles from the US Department of energy, which will be released in 17-30 GMT.

Reference brand Brentи WTI are now at levels 48,64$46,28$per barrel, respectively. Now quotes back to the level of the fast moving average ЕМА21 the other day, while they are above it growing scenario oil remains the main scenario. However, a break below this support may change short term expectations.

Overall, I wanted to share with you his thoughts on account of the weekly chart of Brent crude oil. The fact is that if you hold the resistance line through the peak August and October 2015 and may this year, this line can be considered as the level of the neck of the figure “inverted Head-shoulders”. Now the neck is approximately the area of$52 per barrel, while prices fell back down to think about how does this figure or will be “the hound of the Baskervilles” not worth it. For the alternative implementation of a negative scenario, the required withdrawal rates for at least the right “shoulder”, that is, the level of a 41.50$per barrel.

The scale of the figure is quite significant, so the process may take a little longer for another month, or just before 21 September, when we will be fed, or to 26-28 numbers before the meeting of OPEC in Algeria. In any case, having two different scenarios, you can prepare two plans for the future. And while waiting for the end of the month and sum up the end of August.

Anastasia Ignatenko, analyst at Teletrade

Summing up August, with one eye watching the oil… 31.08.2016

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