The Euro may continue to fall



Gainers and losers on Tuesday

Commodity market

Brent attempts to increase. However, the strong upward movement of energy is not specified. A key constraint to growth remain concerns save the surplus of oil on the world market. The expectation that at an informal meeting in September, OPEC agreed to freeze production volumes weaken. The Minister of energy of Saudi Arabia has previously said that he sees no need for a “significant intervention”. And Iran stated that they will join the agreement if the country will confirm its right to restore its market share.

On Wednesday, the attention will draw data on commercial oil reserves in the United States of energy. According to forecasts, the figure could grow to 1 million barrels, which is not surprising as in the United States ends the season of driving and the demand from refineries traditionally falls. If you still mining in the United States will increase Brentможет to target a reduction in the level of 47.00 dollars per barrel.

The foreign exchange market

The ruble remained virtually without support. Tax payments are behind us and now the Russian currency does not have to rely on demand from exporters. Taking into account the fact that oil prices are still under pressure and short have a chance to continue to decline, it is possible to assume that the ruble will remain under pressure.

Moreover, in the last time there was positive sentiment on the U.S. dollar. If published on Wednesday, statistics on the unemployment rate in the private sector from ADP and report on pending transactions in the housing market is strong, the us currency may gain new momentum for growth amid increasing expectations of a rate hike in September. All of this can lead to the growth of the pair USD/RUB to the area level of 65.50.

Janet Yellen comments on Friday and the representative of the fed Fisher on Tuesday reinforced expectations that the fed is seriously thinking about raising rates. Importantly, the data did not disappoint. Such expectations, coupled with the strong data on consumer confidence from the Conference Board has led to a further drop in the EUR/USD pair, which has updated a 2-week low on 1,1136. And probably this is not the limit.

Not only that, Wednesday will be a block of the American statistics, which in case of a positive outcome may lead to further increase expectations of a rate hike in September. In addition to this there will be a number of very important reports on German and European economies. In particular, the attention will draw data on retail sales and the labor market in Germany. As well as a report on consumer prices in the Eurozone. Weak statistics might have on the Euro under additional pressure, as will attest to the fact that the ECB may still be forced to take additional stimulus measures. In such conditions, the difference in expectations regarding the monetary policy of the ECB and the fed will be clearly in favor of the latter. This means that the EUR/USD after the break of 1.1130 below could target the traffic to of 1.1070.




The Euro may continue to fall 31.08.2016

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